Seasonal Weather and its Prediction*

Abstract

THE economic importance of seasonal weather is obvious to most men who have lived in the tropics, and its scientific problems are full of interest. Unfortunately there is an additional motive for study, the threat of dangers ahead. For the difficulties of long-range forecasting are not in general adequately recognised, so that some of the most progressive countries in the world are inclined to make predictions on an insecure basis; their technical staff does not realise that though the prestige of meteorology may be raised for a few years by the issue of seasonal forecasts, the harm done to the science will inevitably outweigh the good if the prophecies are found unreliable.