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A Model for the Occurrence of Large Earthquakes

Nature volume 211, pages 954–956 (1966)Cite this article

Abstract

THIS communication outlines a probability model which seems to provide an adequate basis for making predictions concerning the occurrence of largest earthquake magnitudes over time: (a) The number of earthquakes in a year is a Poisson random variable with mean α; (b) X, the earthquake magnitude, is a random variable distributed with cumulative distribution function:

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References

  1. Gumbel, E. J., Statistics of Extremes (Columbia University Press, New York, 1958).

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  2. Richter, C. F., Elementary Seismology, 359 (W. H. Freeman, San Francisco, 1958).

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  3. Lomnitz, C., Bull. Seis. Soc. Amer., 54, 1271 (1964).

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  4. Iscol, R., G2 BC REGRESS (University of California, Computer Center, Berkeley, August 1964).

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  5. Gutenberg, B., and Richter, C. F., Seismicity of the Earth and Associated Phenomena, 18 (Princeton Univ. Press, 1949).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Operations Research Center,

    B. EPSTEIN

  2. Seismographic Stations, University of California, Berkeley

    C. LOMNITZ

Authors
  1. B. EPSTEIN
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  2. C. LOMNITZ
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EPSTEIN, B., LOMNITZ, C. A Model for the Occurrence of Large Earthquakes. Nature 211, 954–956 (1966). https://doi.org/10.1038/211954b0

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