Deadly Surges in the Bay of Bengal: Dynamics and Storm-tide Tables

Abstract

DURING the 1960s alone about 400,000 people died in the exceptionally high tides which swept in along the low lying northern coast of the Bay of Bengal under the force of tropical cyclones. Over half of these lives were lost in the single surge caused by the storm of November 1970¹. Such loss of life can be prevented only by depopulation of the area, construction of permanent defences, or by prediction of and protection against individual storms. The latter involves the identification and survey of a severe cyclone, forecast of the development and course of the storm, prediction of the sea level response, warning of danger, and protection of the survivors. We have considered the problem of sea level dynamics and prediction, and using simple mathematical models have studied the characteristics of the surge and found the sea level response to a number of model cyclones moving across the Bay along a variety of paths. Our results are summarized in a form which is handy for immediate incorporation into a warning programme.