Consequences of Cycles in East African Climate

Abstract

Western and Van Praet¹ have convincingly suggested that losses of yellow fever-trees in the Maasi Ambolesi are not due to over-population by cattle or elephants but to a climatic change causing a shift in the salt table. They assume that the change is part of a cycle, though of a much smaller range than has occurred in the past 10,000 yr. Perhaps inadvertently, they seem to suggest that the cycle producing the present vegetation change lasts about a century. Much shorter cycles than this may, however, be usual in the region, as evidence from further south suggests. It is important that this should be appreciated because, as the authors state, investment by governments on developments to accommodate tourists may be wasted if the climate is wrongly forecast.