Sunspot cycles and solar activity forecasting

Abstract

I REPORT here that there is a linear relation between the relative intensity of solar cycle activity, as measured by the ratio (μ) of maximum annual mean sunspot number of two consecutive cycles, and the relative skewness of the first cycle. This relationship facilitates the forecasting of the intensity of the next cycle towards the end of a current cycle. The solar cycle just starting is likely to be more active, with an expected maximum annual average sunspot number of 195, compared with 106 for the cycle just ended.