Abandon coal, price carbon consumption and look to new technologies for a lasting solution to global emissions, argues Dieter Helm.
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Helm, D. The Kyoto approach has failed. Nature 491, 663–665 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1038/491663a
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/491663a
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Peter Cary
On behalf of John A. Mathews and Hao Tan:
China?s declining fossil fuel dependence
John A. Mathews and Hao Tan
The assertion by Dieter Helm ("The Kyoto approach has failed", 29 November 2012) that China continues to burn coal in generating around 80% of its electricity should not be allowed to stand.
According to the most recent data from the China Electricity Council (CEC), China?s electricity generation in 2012 amounted to 4977 TWh, of which 3910 TWh (78%) were generated from thermal sources (coal and gas). In terms of what has actually been built, electric power capacity by the end of 2012 reached 1145 GW, of which 758 GW (or 66%) is coal-fired based capacity while 316 GW (28%) is non-thermal (hydro, nuclear and 'new? renewable – wind and solar) and 5% is 'other' (mainly gas-fired and oil).
China clearly intends that these trends should continue. The energy goals of the 12th Five Year Plan covering the years 2011 to 2015 implied a target of reaching 30% non-fossil power installed capacity by 2020 – and now the latest energy White Paper has made this an official target, and brought it forward to be reached by 2015. The 2012 generating capacity results revealing that non-thermal sources reached 28% show that the new target of 30% by 2015 is eminently achievable.
And the trend is very definitely downwards for coal, and tipping towards renewables. According to the same CEC, new capacity additions in 2012 were 89 GW, of which 51 GW were for thermal, 30 GW for hydro, wind and solar, and 1 GW for nuclear – meaning that coal-fired capacity accounted for less than 57% of new capacity additions. And the actual investments made in 2012, again supplied by the CEC, tell an even more striking story. Total investment in 2012 in power stations (excluding investments in the grid) was RMB 377.2 billion [US$60.5 billion], and of this only 27% was accounted for by fossil sources, with non-fossil sources (mainly wind and hydro) accounting for the balance, or 73%. This is a trend lasting several years, that is linked to the high price that steaming coal has been commanding.
So the correct formulation would be that China currently has an electric power system in excess of 1 terawatt (larger than that of the US) where historically 80% or more of electric energy generated has been based on coal. The thermal sources proportion fell to 78% in 2012, and is trending down. In terms of capacity, coal-based thermal has been falling in significance each year, reaching as low as 66% by 2012 and is destined to fall below 60% by 2015 if present investment trends continue. Non-fossil sources are projected officially to rise and reach at least 30% of electric generating capacity by 2015.
We would add that energy efficiency has been improving, with coal consumption per GWh of electricity generated dropping by 10% over the five years from 2006 to 2010. These efficiency improvements do not appear to have been taken into account in Helm's analysis. Nor is there any mention of the power of logistic industrial dynamics, through which accumulated investments in hydro and 'new' renewables may be anticipated to dominate energy production in China sometime within the next decade – perhaps as early as 2020. This would certainly be very good news for China, and for the world.
John A. Mathews and Hao Tan