Table 5 Most and least favourable parameter estimates
Genetic services | No presymptomatic services | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Parameters | High risk | Moderate risk | High risk | Moderate risk |
Most favourable | ||||
Mutation prevalence | 27% | — | 27% | — |
Mutation penetrance | 82% (BRCA1/2) 40% (unidentified mutation) | 33% | 82% (BRCA1/2) 40% (unidentified mutation) | 33% |
Prophylactic mastectomy | 38% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Prophylactic oophorectomy | 14% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Prophylactic mastectomy and oophorectomy | 13% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
5 year death rate | 35–54 years 3.8% with no lead time | 35–54 years 3.8% with no lead time | 35–54 years 35.1% with no lead time | 35–54 years 35.1% with no lead lime |
55–59 years 6.9% with no lead time | 55–59 years 6.9% with no lead time | 55–59 years 39.0% with no lead time | 55–59 years 39.0% with no lead time | |
Number of Markov cycles/years | 24 | 19 | 24 | 19 |
Least favourable | ||||
Mutation prevalence | 7% | — | 7% | — |
Mutation penetrance | 70% (BRCA1/2) 35% (Unidentified mutation) | 17% | 70% (BRCA1/2) 35% (unidentified mutation) | 17% |
Prophylactic mastectomy | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Prophylactic oophorectomy | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Prophylactic mastectomy and oophorectomy | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
5 year death rate | 35–54 years 9.4% with a 2 year lead time | 35–54 years 9.4% with a 2 year lead time | 35–54 years 24.4% with no lead time | 35–54 years 24.4% with no lead time |
55–59 years 16.7% with a 2 year lead time | 55–59 years 16.7% with a 2 year lead time | 55–59 years 30.2% with no lead time | 55–59 years 30.2% with no lead time | |
Number of Markov cycles/years | 15 | 9 | 15 | 9 |
