Table 4 Projections of 15-year survival probabilities based on data from Albertsen et al (1998) and Sweat et al (2002): central estimates and ranges of values obtained from low and high projections of life expectancy
Lead time (years) | Overdetection rate (%) | Albertsen data: survival benefit (%) | Sweat data: survival benefit (%) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Age group (years) | Gleason score | Central | Sensitivity range | Central | Sensitivity range | Central | Sensitivity range | Central | Sensitivity range |
55–59 | <7 | 14.1 | 5.2–22.1 | 37.1 | 6.9–82.4 | 0 | 0–5 | 0 | 0–6 |
=7 | 9.3 | 2.8–15.1 | 16.1 | 1.2–74.5 | 12 | 0–36 | 5 | 0–17 | |
>7 | 5.0 | 1.1–9.6 | 7.3 | 0.2–78.6 | 26 | 1–48 | 12 | 0–23 | |
60–64 | <7 | 13.4 | 5.1–21.7 | 54.1 | 13.7–89.8 | 1 | 0–5 | 0 | 0–6 |
=7 | 9.2 | 2.7–15.3 | 27.8 | 4–78.2 | 9 | 0–32 | 4 | 0–18 | |
>7 | 5.3 | 1.2–9.7 | 12.1 | 0.6–74.7 | 20 | 0–46 | 11 | 0–24 | |
65–69 | <7 | 11.8 | 4.4–20.1 | 66.9 | 19.4–94.4 | 0 | 0–7 | 0 | 0–4 |
=7 | 9.0 | 2.7–15.2 | 43.5 | 9.3–85.3 | 6 | 0–27 | 3 | 0–15 | |
>7 | 6.0 | 1.4–10.1 | 25.8 | 3.4–77.4 | 12 | 0–40 | 6 | 0–22 | |
70–74 | <7 | 9.9 | 3.4–17.8 | 76.6 | 23.6–97.2 | 1 | 0–9 | 0 | 0–4 |
=7 | 8.0 | 2.3–14.3 | 57.5 | 15.2–91.1 | 3 | 0–22 | 2 | 0–15 | |
>7 | 5.7 | 1.7–10.6 | 36.9 | 6.9–82.3 | 6 | 0–34 | 5 | 0–20 | |
