Table 3 Central projections of 15-year outcome probabilities and absolute benefit of treatment (to nearest whole percentage point). (‘PC death’: death attributed to prostate cancer)
Age at diagnosis (years) | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
55–59 | 60–64 | 65–69 | 70–74 | |||||||||
Gleason score | Alive | Other death | PC death | Alive | Other death | PC death | Alive | Other death | PC death | Alive | Other death | PC death |
(i) Original data – conservative treatment | ||||||||||||
<7 | 62 | 26 | 12 | 48 | 38 | 13 | 31 | 52 | 17 | 14 | 64 | 22 |
=7 | 15 | 15 | 70 | 14 | 24 | 62 | 11 | 36 | 53 | 7 | 51 | 42 |
>7 | 3 | 10 | 87 | 3 | 16 | 81 | 3 | 25 | 72 | 2 | 38 | 60 |
(ii) Conservative treatment, adjusting for screening (step two) | ||||||||||||
<7 | 71 | 28 | 1 | 57 | 42 | 1 | 39 | 60 | 1 | 20 | 79 | 1 |
=7 | 42 | 31 | 27 | 37 | 45 | 18 | 27 | 63 | 10 | 15 | 79 | 6 |
>7 | 11 | 25 | 64 | 11 | 38 | 51 | 12 | 57 | 31 | 7 | 75 | 18 |
(iii) Conservative treatment, allowing for screening and contemporary population (step three) | ||||||||||||
<7 | 84 | 16 | 0 | 74 | 25 | 1 | 61 | 38 | 1 | 43 | 55 | 2 |
=7 | 52 | 17 | 31 | 50 | 27 | 23 | 45 | 40 | 15 | 35 | 56 | 9 |
>7 | 15 | 13 | 72 | 18 | 21 | 61 | 23 | 35 | 42 | 20 | 52 | 28 |
(iv) Curative treatment, allowing for screening and contemporary population (step four) | ||||||||||||
<7 | 84 | 16 | 0 | 75 | 25 | 0 | 61 | 38 | 1 | 44 | 55 | 1 |
=7 | 64 | 18 | 18 | 59 | 28 | 13 | 51 | 41 | 8 | 38 | 57 | 5 |
>7 | 41 | 19 | 40 | 38 | 28 | 34 | 35 | 42 | 23 | 26 | 58 | 16 |
(v) Absolute differences: (iv) minus (iii) | ||||||||||||
<7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | −1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | −1 |
=7 | 12 | 1 | −13 | 9 | 1 | −10 | 6 | 1 | −7 | 3 | 1 | −4 |
>7 | 26 | 6 | −32 | 20 | 7 | −27 | 12 | 7 | −19 | 6 | 6 | −12 |
