Table 4 The impact of alternative assumptions for vaccine efficacy, waning, and vaccination age on selected cervical cancer outcomes in the United Kingdom
| Â | CIN 2+CIN 3 prevalence | Cervical cancer cases ( n) | Cervical cancer deaths ( n) |
|---|---|---|---|
No vaccine | 1.07% | 2636 | 1403 |
Base case a | Â | Â | Â |
| Â | 0.361% | 632 | 335 |
 % Reduction | 66.3% | 76.0% | 76.1% |
Scenario 1: Low efficacy (HPV 16/18) | |||
| Â | 0.390% | 724 | 384 |
 % Reduction | 63.6% | 72.5% | 72.7% |
Scenario 2: High efficacy (HPV 16/18) | |||
| Â | 0.331% | 538 | 287 |
 % Reduction | 69.0% | 79.6% | 79.6% |
Scenario 3: No cross protection | |||
| Â | 0.410% | 710 | 375 |
 % Reduction | 61.7% | 73.1% | 73.3% |
Scenario 4: Vaccination coverage (80%) | |||
| Â | 0.502% | 1032 | 549 |
 % Reduction | 53.1% | 60.8% | 60.9% |
Scenario 5: Lower age at vaccination (10 years) | |||
| Â | 0.361% | 631 | 335 |
 % Reduction | 66.3% | 76.0% | 76.1% |
Scenario 6: Higher age at vaccination (18 years) | |||
| Â | 0.535% | 896 | 506 |
 % Reduction | 50.0% | 66.0% | 63.9% |
Scenario 7: Vaccine waning (HPV 31, 45 types) | |||
| Â | 0.409% | 709 | 375 |
 % Reduction | 61.8% | 73.1% | 73.3% |
Scenario 8: Vaccine waning (HPV 31, 45 types)+Booster at 10 years | |||
| Â | 0.400% | 698 | 368 |
 % Reduction | 62.7% | 73.5% | 73.8% |
Scenario 9: Decreased HPV type distribution of 16/18 in cervical cancer | |||
| Â | 0.356% | 749 | 397 |
 % Reduction | 66.7% | 71.6% | 71.7% |
