Table 1 Recorded cancer incidence in males and females in England 2001, predicted cancer incidence around 2020 and the corresponding percentage change in incidence, decomposed into changing risk and demographic components

		Males					Females
ICD-10 code	Cancer type	Number of cancer cases in 2001 ^a	Number of cancer cases in 2020 ^b	Change overall (%) ^c	Change due to change in risk (%) ^d	Change due to change in population (%) ^e	Number of cancer cases in 2001 ^a	Number of cancer cases in 2020 ^b	Change overall (%) ^c	Change due to change in risk (%) ^d	Change due to change in population (%) ^e
C00-C14	Lip, mouth, pharynx	2624	4584	75	43	32	1458	2290	57	34	23
C15	Oesophagus	3771	5974	58	15	43	2293	2770	21	−6	26
C16	Stomach	4780	5046	6	−42	47	2649	2468	−7	−33	26
C18	Colon	8872	11 692	32	−15	46	8746	9786	12	−14	26
C19–C21	Rectum	6468	9842	52	10	42	4503	6090	35	10	25
C25	Pancreas	2852	4198	47	2	45	3022	3683	22	−4	26
C33–C34	Lung	18 495	18 519	0	−45	45	12 004	13 600	13	−12	26
C43	Melanoma	2629	4942	88	58	30	3377	5608	66	49	17
C50	Breast	—	—	—	—	—	34 636	49 743	44	22	21
C53	Cervix uteri	—	—	—	—	—	2420	2123	−12	−24	12
C54	Corpus uteri	—	—	—	—	—	4684	7149	53	27	25
C56–C57	Ovary	—	—	—	—	—	5612	6933	24	1	23
C61	Prostate^f	24 717	36 703	48	0	48	—	—	—	—	—
C62	Testis	1600	2332	46	39	7	—	—	—	—	—
C64–C66	Kidney	3199	4790	50	12	38	1967	2955	50	26	24
C67	Bladder^f	6394	9547	49	0	49	2582	3266	26	0	26
C71	Brain	2033	2414	19	−8	26	1501	1448	−4	−23	19
C81	Hodgkin's lymphoma	690	939	36	22	14	497	636	28	18	10
C82–C85	NHL	4237	6748	59	24	36	3681	5757	56	33	23
C88, C90	Myeloma	1701	2954	74	28	46	1480	2006	36	10	26
C91–C95	Leukaemia	3084	4687	52	12	40	2409	3080	28	5	22
	Other sites	13 493	16 470	22	−21	43	12 956	15 107	17	−8	24
C00–C97 (excluding C44)	All excluding NMSC^g	111 639	152 381	36	−7	43	112 477	146 500	30	7	23

NHL=non-Hodgkin's lymphoma; NMSC=non-melanoma skin cancer.
^aAverage annual incidence as recorded 1999–2003.
^bAverage annual incidence as predicted 2019–2023.
^c% change in the number of new cases predicted for 2019–2023 compared to 1999–2003.
^d% change in the number of new cases due to changes in risk.
^e% change in the number of new cases due to changes in population age structure and size.
^fIncidence rates were assumed to remain constant for prostate and bladder cancer.
^gAll cancers excluding non-melanoma cancers of skin; numbers and proportional changes based on combining the specific cancer sites.

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