Table 1 Outcome probabilities used in the model

Distant recurrences as a proportion of all recurrences during recurrence benefit^a

β

Anastrozole: α, 186; β, 96

Tamoxifen: α, 222, β, 148

Adverse events ^b

 Life-threatening

β

Anastrozole: α, 142; β, 2950

Tamoxifen: α, 201, β, 2893

 Non life-threatening

β

Anastrozole: α, 2163; β, 929

Tamoxifen: α, 2037, β, 1057

 None

Remainder

Following local/regional recurrence

 Distant metastases-free at 5 years^c

β

α, 73; β, 67

 Distant metastases-free after 5 years^d

β

α, 91; β, 27

 Death due to breast cancer^e

β

α, 26; β, 140

Following distant recurrence

 Overall survival at 2 years^f

β

α, 155; β, 155