Table a6 Markov states 13–19 and the links to other Markov states in the screening age range

State number	Initial Markov state	Next Markov state (no.)	Transition probability	Reference (date)
13	Surveillance	Healthy (1)	0.1667
	High-risk adenoma	Detected and treated low-risk adenoma (7)	0.014	Winawer et al (1993); Lund (2002)
		Detected and treated high-risk adenoma (8)	0.023	Winawer et al (1993)
		Death from all other causes (16)	Age specific	Government Actuary's Department (2003)
		Remain (13)	^*
14	Surveillance	Healthy (1)	0.125
	Early cancer	Death from all other causes (16)	Age specific	Government Actuary's Department (2003)
		Death from colorectal cancer (17)	0.0239	Hardcastle (2000)
		Remain (14)	^*
15	Surveillance	Healthy (1)	0.125
	Regional cancer	Death from all other causes (16)	Age specific	Government Actuary's Department (2003)
		Death from colorectal cancer (17)	0.0649	Hardcastle (2000)
		Remain (15)	^*
16	Death from other cause	Permanent state	—	—
17	Death from colorectal cancer	Permanent state	—	—
18	Peri/post-operative death	Permanent state	—	—
19	False-positive tests	Healthy (1)	^*
		Death from all other causes (16)	Age specific	Government Actuary's Department (2003)
		Peri/post-operative death (18)	0.0001

Death from all other causes is an age-specific probability and so varies within the model.
^*For each state, the transition probabilities for each state must add up to one.
2005 costs in pounds sterling discounted at 3.5% rate for the first 30 years of follow-up and 3% thereafter.

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