Table a5 Markov states 9–12 and the links to other Markov states in the screening age range

State number	Initial Markov state	Next Markov state (no.)	Transition probability	Reference (date)
7	D/T low-risk adenoma	Death from all other causes (16)	Age specific	Government Actuary's Department (2003)
		Healthy (1)	^*
		Peri/post-operative death (18)	0.0001	Nelson et al (2002)
		Remain (7)	0.019	Lund et al (2001)
8	D/T high-risk adenoma	Peri/post-operative death (18)	0.001	Nelson et al (2002
		Surveillance high-risk adenoma (13)	^*
		Death from all other causes (16)	Age specific	Government Actuary's Department (2003)
9	D/T early cancer	Peri/post-operative death (18)	0.057	ACPGBI (2002)
		Surveillance early cancer (14)	^*
		Death from all other causes (16)	Age specific	Government Actuary's Department (2003)
		Death from colorectal cancer (17)	0.0542	Hardcastle et al (1996); ACPGBI (2002)
10	D/T regional cancer	Peri/post-operative death (18)	0.069	ACPGBI (2002)
		Surveillance regional cancer (15)	^*
		Death from all other causes (16)	Age specific	Government Actuary's Department (2003)
		Death from colorectal cancer (17)	0.1677	Hardcastle et al (1996); ACPGBI (2002)
		Remain (10)	0.025
11	D/T advanced cancer	Peri/post-operative death (18)	0.119	ACPGBI (2002)
		Palliative care (12)	^*
		Death from all other causes (16)	Age specific	Government Actuary's Department (2003)
		Death from colorectal cancer (17)	0.6469	Hardcastle et al (1996); ACPGBI (2002)
12	Palliative care	Death from all other causes (16)	Age specific	Government Actuary's Department (2003)
		Death from colorectal cancer (17)	0.6469	Hardcastle et al (1996); ACPGBI (2002)
		Remain (12)	^*

Death from all other causes is an age-specific probability and so varies within the model.^[2]/T, detected and treated.
^*For each state, the transition probabilities for each state must add up to one.
2005 costs in pounds sterling discounted at 3.5% rate for the first 30 years of follow-up and 3% thereafter.

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