Table 4 Survival according to risk stratification in the development and validation cohorts
Development data set | Validation data set | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Prognostic groups | Deaths/No. of patients | Median observed OS | Median predicted OS | Hazard ratios | Deaths/No. of patients | Median observed OS | Median predicted OS | Hazard ratios |
Our model (after calibration in the validation cohort) | ||||||||
0 risk factors | 15/48 | NR | NR | 1 | 31/67 | 38.1 | 50.2 | 1 |
1 risk factors | 33/55 | 24.7 | 22.3 | 2.27 | 45/92 | 30 | 29 | 1.26 |
2 risk factors | 33/45 | 12.8 | 11.5 | 4.32 | 54/82 | 20.4 | 19.2 | 1.88 |
3 risk factors | 22/22 | 5.9 | 6.4 | 10.48 | 21/25 | 10.6 | 13.6 | 4.09 |
Good risk | 15/48 | NR | NR | 1 | 31/67 | 38.1 | 50.2 | 1 |
Intermediate risk | 46/78 | 22.4 | 21.7 | 2.41 | 70/135 | 29 | 26 | 1.36 |
Poor risk | 42/44 | 7.7 | 8.6 | 8.18 | 50/64 | 13.5 | 17.2 | 2.78 |
Heng’s model (after calibration in both cohorts) | ||||||||
Favourable | 6/16 | 37.4 | 37.4 | 1 | 24/53 | 40.2 | 43.2 | 1 |
Intermediate | 28/57 | 28.8 | 24.8 | 1.62 | 77/126 | 21 | 21.4 | 1.73 |
Poor | 26/32 | 11.2 | 11.2 | 3.64 | 37/48 | 13.6 | 13.1 | 2.79 |
