Table 3 Discriminatory performance measures for each of the risk models for 5-year risk of developing colorectal cancer in men
From: External validation of risk prediction models for incident colorectal cancer using UK Biobank
| Â | Colditz | Driver | Freedman | Guesmi | Johnson | Ma (simple) | Ma (Cox) | QCancer10 | Tao | Wei Y-S | Wells |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total n | n =139 257 | n =167 762 | n= 101 530 | n =168 825 | n =169 722 | n =150 386 | n =150 386 | n =158 024 | n =149 693 | n =160 256 | n =140 749 |
Incident CRC | n =761 | n =946 | n =685 | n =961 | n =965 | n =830 | n =830 | n =884 | n =825 | n =898 | n =764 |
Top 10% | |||||||||||
Sensitivity | 13.8 | 20.2 | 21.5 | 11.1 | 12.2 | 22.5 | 24.7 | 24.9 | 26.4 | 14.5 | 22.6 |
Specificity | 90.0 | 90.1 | 90.1 | 90.0 | 90.0 | 90.1 | 90.1 | 90.1 | 90.1 | 90.0 | 90.1 |
LR+ | 1.38 | 2.03 | 2.16 | 1.11 | 1.22 | 2.27 | 2.49 | 2.51 | 2.67 | 1.45 | 2.28 |
LR− | 0.96 | 0.89 | 0.87 | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.86 | 0.84 | 0.83 | 0.82 | 0.95 | 0.86 |
PPV (%) | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 1.2 |
NPV (%) | 99.5 | 99.5 | 99.4 | 99.4 | 99.4 | 99.5 | 99.5 | 99.5 | 99.5 | 99.5 | 99.5 |
Top 20% | |||||||||||
Sensitivity | 25.8 | 38.5 | 35.3 | 29.9 | 23.2 | 40.0 | 42.8 | 42.8 | 41.3 | 23.3 | 36.5 |
Specificity | 80.0 | 80.1 | 80.1 | 80.1 | 80.0 | 80.1 | 80.1 | 80.1 | 80.1 | 80.0 | 80.1 |
LR+ | 1.29 | 1.93 | 1.78 | 1.50 | 1.16 | 2.01 | 2.15 | 2.15 | 2.08 | 1.16 | 1.83 |
LR− | 0.93 | 0.77 | 0.81 | 0.88 | 0.96 | 0.75 | 0.71 | 0.71 | 0.73 | 0.96 | 0.79 |
PPV (%) | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 1.0 |
NPV (%) | 99.5 | 99.6 | 99.5 | 99.5 | 99.5 | 99.6 | 99.6 | 99.6 | 99.6 | 99.5 | 99.6 |
Top 80% | |||||||||||
Sensitivity | 86.2 | 95.2 | 90.7 | 96.1 | 71.4 | 97.0 | 96.7 | 97.1 | 95.6 | 84.2 | 85.9 |
Specificity | 20.0 | 20.1 | 20.1 | 20.1 | 20.0 | 20.1 | 20.1 | 20.1 | 20.1 | 20.0 | 20.0 |
LR+ | 1.08 | 1.19 | 1.13 | 1.20 | 0.89 | 1.21 | 1.21 | 1.21 | 1.20 | 1.05 | 1.07 |
LR− | 0.69 | 0.24 | 0.47 | 0.19 | 1.43 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.15 | 0.22 | 0.79 | 0.71 |
PPV (%) | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
NPV (%) | 99.6 | 99.9 | 99.7 | 99.9 | 99.2 | 99.9 | 99.9 | 99.9 | 99.9 | 99.6 | 99.6 |
Top 90% | |||||||||||
Sensitivity | 94.3 | 98.0 | 96.6 | 99.1 | 82.7 | 98.8 | 99.0 | 99.1 | 97.5 | 91.4 | 88.7 |
Specificity | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.1 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.1 | 10.1 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 |
LR+ | 1.05 | 1.09 | 1.07 | 1.10 | 0.92 | 1.10 | 1.10 | 1.10 | 1.08 | 1.02 | 0.99 |
LR− | 0.56 | 0.20 | 0.33 | 0.09 | 1.74 | 0.12 | 0.10 | 0.09 | 0.25 | 0.86 | 1.13 |
PPV (%) | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
NPV (%) | 99.7 | 99.9 | 99.8 | 99.9 | 99.0 | 99.9 | 99.9 | 99.9 | 99.8 | 99.5 | 99.4 |
