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Why probability probably doesn’t exist (but it is useful to act like it does)

All of statistics and much of science depends on probability — an astonishing achievement, considering no one’s really sure what it is.
By
  1. David Spiegelhalter

    1. David Spiegelhalter is emeritus professor of statistics at the University of Cambridge, UK. He is the author of The Art of Uncertainty: How to Navigate Chance, Ignorance, Risk and Luck (Penguin, 2024).

A stylised illustration of a man with dark skin, scratching his head and holding an umbrella. He is standing in front of a slot machine which is showing three rain symbols in a row.

Illustration: Sébastien Thibault

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Life is uncertain. None of us know what is going to happen. We know little of what has happened in the past, or is happening now outside our immediate experience. Uncertainty has been called the ‘conscious awareness of ignorance’1 — be it of the weather tomorrow, the next Premier League champions, the climate in 2100 or the identity of our ancient ancestors.

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Nature 636, 560-563 (2024)

doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-024-04096-5

Updates & Corrections

  • Correction 18 December 2024: The picture caption in this story did not accurately capture the circumstances surrounding the Cuba invasion.

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Competing Interests

The author declares no competing interests.

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