Caribbean coral reefs are threatened by rising seas

Browne, Nicola K.

doi:10.1038/d41586-025-02533-7

NEWS AND VIEWS
17 September 2025

Caribbean coral reefs are threatened by rising seas

Modelling suggests that most Caribbean coral reefs will erode by the year 2100 as sea-level rise outpaces reef growth and limits potential reef restoration.

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Nicola K. Browne ORCID: http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7160-6865⁰

Nicola K. Browne
1. Nicola K. Browne is at the School of the Environment, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland 4072, Australia.
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Coral reefs provide habitats rich in biodiversity and offer protection against flooding. Climate change threatens their existence if sea-level rise (SLR) outpaces the ability of coral reefs to grow when molecules of calcium carbonate are added to them though a process termed accretion. Writing in Nature, Perry et al.¹ present modelling of reef growth and SLR under a variety of global-warming scenarios for more than 400 coral reefs in the tropical western Atlantic (TWA), including reefs in the Florida Keys, the Gulf of Mexico and Mexican Mesoamerica.

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Nature 646, 556-558 (2025)

doi: https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-025-02533-7

References

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The author declares no competing interests.

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[1] Perry, C. T. et al. Nature 646, 619–626 (2025).
Article Google Scholar

[2] Lee, H. & Romero, J. (eds.) Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report (IPCC, 2023).
Google Scholar

[3] Morris, R. L. et al. Sci. Total Environ. 917, 170363 (2024).
Article PubMed Google Scholar

[4] Hopley, D. (ed.) Encyclopedia of Modern Coral Reefs: Structure, Form and Process (Springer, 2011).
Google Scholar

[5] Kinsey, D. W. & Hopley, D. Palaeogeogr. Palaeclimatol. Palaeoecol. 89, 363–377 (1991).
Article Google Scholar

[6] Bramante, J. F., Ashton, A. D., Storlazzi, C. D., Cheriton, O. M. & Donnelly, J. P. J. Geophys. Res. Earth Surf. 125, e2019JF005446 (2020).
Article Google Scholar

[7] Cornwall, C. E. et al. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 118, e2015265118 (2021).
Article PubMed Google Scholar

[8] Torda, G. et al. Nature Clim. Change 7, 627–636 (2017).
Article Google Scholar

[9] Perry, C. T. & Smithers, S. G. Geology 38, 119–122 (2010).
Article Google Scholar

[10] Hoegh-Guldberg, O., Poloczanska, E. S., Skirving, W. & Dove, S. Front. Mar. Sci. 4, 158 (2017).
Article Google Scholar

[11] Lirman, D. & Schopmeyer, S. Peer J. 4, e2597 (2016).
Article PubMed Google Scholar

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