Figure 2

Example: ROC curve analysis of adding genetic variables to clinical risk factors for the prediction of age-related macular degeneration. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the age-related macular degeneration (AMD). The risk models were constructed from published genotype/exposure frequencies and odds ratios,⁶ using a simulation method that has been described previously.⁹⁵ The clinical prediction model was based on age, sex, education, baseline AMD grade, smoking, body mass index and treatment. The added genetic factors were six single nucleotide polymorphisms. The curves indicate the sensitivity and 1-specificity for every possible cut-off value of predicted risks. The diagonal line indicates a hypothetical random predictor, which AUC equals 0.50.