Figure 1

Logistic regression of probability for strong Bayesian posterior support (⩾0.95) for nodes in the darter ALFP phylogeny (Smith et al., 2011) treated as a dichotomous variable and estimated age of the node in a relaxed molecular clock analysis (Near et al., 2011). Filled dark circles represent the logistic curve. The intercept was 21.3 Ma and is marked with a black vertical line. Contrasts in the darter phylogeny that are older than the intercept are not expected to have strong posterior support in Bayesian phylogenetic analyses of AFLP data sets. Overlaid on the plot is a time-calibrated phylogeny inferred from a multi-locus data set scaled to the estimated evolutionary age. Nodes in the DNA sequence-inferred time tree that were >21.3 Ma and supported with Bayesian posteriors ⩾0.95 are marked with a filled grey circle. The most recent common ancestors of major darter clades resolved in the multi-locus time tree, which comprise the deepest relationships, are labelled.