Table 1 Results from Bayesian posterior predictive tests of the effects of Age, Species distribution, Latitudinal population and Latitude on levels of additive genetic variation (V_A) in the height or slope of TRNs of larval heads width

Model	Parameter	V_A height Estimate	Lower	Upper	P-value	V_A slope Estimate	Lower	Upper	P-value
M1	Age	0.0096	0.0036	0.0158	0.001	0.0066	−0.0010	0.0137	0.045
M2	Distribution: C	0.6051	0.0858	1.1145	0.013	−0.1219	−0.7883	0.5331	0.356
	Distribution: N	0.0671	−0.4685	0.6050	0.402	−0.1393	−0.7766	0.5133	0.347
M3	Age × Distribution: C	−0.0018	−0.0171	0.0129	0.414	0.0003	−0.0183	0.0190	0.487
	Age × Distribution: N	0.0116	−0.0049	0.0282	0.081*	0.0128	−0.0067	0.0315	0.102*
M4	Population: C	−0.2150	−0.7437	0.3135	0.215	−0.5553	−1.1754	0.1056	0.050
	Population: N	−0.3670	−0.9482	0.2124	0.110*	−0.0898	−0.7810	0.5743	0.390
M5	Age × Population: C	0.0088	−0.0067	0.0239	0.136	0.0021	−0.0168	0.0209	0.412
	Age × Population: N	0.0098	−0.0074	0.0268	0.132	0.0043	−0.0147	0.0240	0.336
M6	Latitude	−0.0099	−0.0335	0.0143	0.210	−0.0030	−0.0314	0.0264	0.422
M7	Latitude²	−0.0010	−0.0050	0.0031	0.319	0.0023	−0.0021	0.0068	0.165
M8	Latitude³	0.0003	−0.0002	0.0009	0.116*	−0.0004	−0.0010	0.0003	0.118*
M9	Age × Latitude	0.0007	0.0000	0.0014	0.020	0.0006	−0.0002	0.0014	0.087*
M10	Age × Latitude²	0.0000	−0.0001	0.0001	0.366	0.0000	−0.0001	0.0002	0.381
M11	Age × Latitude³	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.460	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.388

Abbreviation: TRN, thermal reaction norm.
P-values are the proportion of estimated coefficients that exceed 0 (positively or negatively) when fitting models to data sampled from the posterior distributions of V_A height or V_A slope. The posterior distributions are shown in Supplementary Figures S2 and S3. P-values in bold denote variables significant at P=0.05. P-values marked by an asterisk denote weakly indicative parameters of potential biological interest (discussed in the text).

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