Table 3 Sex-specific short-, intermediate-term and LTR estimates for stroke and its subtypes beyond 55 years of age by BP groups: adult health study, 45-year follow-up, 1958–2003, Japan

From: Lifetime risk of stroke and impact of hypertension: estimates from the adult health study in Hiroshima and Nagasaki

   

Short- and intermediate-term risk estimate (s.d.) (%)

 

Stroke type

Sex

BP group a

10 year

20 year

30 year

40 year

LTR estimate (s.d.) (%)

All-stroke

Men

Normal

2.6 (0.6)

7.8 (1.3)

13.1 (1.9)

—

13.8 (2.0)

  

PreHT

3.3 (0.6)

8.4 (1.1)

14.1 (1.5)

16.9 (1.7)

16.9 (1.7)

  

Stage 1 HT

6.1 (0.9)

14.3 (1.5)

23.1 (2.2)

25.8 (2.4)

25.8 (2.4)

  

Stage 2 HT

13.1 (1.5)

21.3 (1.9)

25.3 (2.2)

—

25.8 (2.3)

 

Women

Normal

1.2 (0.3)

5.3 (0.7)

11.3 (1.3)

16.0 (1.7)

16.0 (1.7)

  

PreHT

1.1 (0.3)

5.0 (0.6)

12.6 (1.2)

19.4 (1.8)

19.9 (1.8)

  

Stage 1 HT

2.8 (0.5)

9.3 (1.0)

20.0 (1.8)

24.0 (2.3)

24.0 (2.3)

  

Stage 2 HT

5.5 (0.8)

15.7 (1.4)

26.4 (2.1)

30.5 (2.4)

30.5 (2.4)

Ischemic stroke

Men

Normal

1.6 (0.6)

6.6 (1.2)

10.6 (1.7)

—

11.2 (1.8)

  

PreHT

1.8 (1.7)

4.7 (2.6)

8.7 (1.2)

10.7 (1.5)

10.7 (1.5)

  

Stage 1 HT

3.6 (0.7)

9.2 (1.3)

16.2 (1.9)

18.3 (2.2)

18.3 (2.2)

  

Stage 2 HT

8.5 (1.3)

13.5 (1.6)

16.8 (1.9)

—

17.3 (2.0)

 

Women

Normal

1.0 (0.3)

3.2 (0.6)

7.7 (1.1)

11.3 (1.5)

11.3 (1.5)

  

PreHT

0.5 (0.2)

2.3 (0.4)

7.2 (1.0)

12.6 (1.5)

13.1 (1.6)

  

Stage 1 HT

1.3 (0.4)

5.2 (0.8)

11.7 (1.5)

14.5 (2.0)

14.5 (2.0)

  

Stage 2 HT

2.2 (0.5)

8.6 (1.1)

16.2 (1.8)

18.4 (2.0)

18.4 (2.0)

Hemorrhagic stroke

Men

Normal

0.6 (0.3)

0.6 (0.3)

1.5 (0.7)

—

1.5 (0.7)

  

PreHT

1.0 (0.3)

2.6 (0.6)

3.5 (0.8)

4.2 (0.9)

4.2 (0.9)

  

Stage 1 HT

2.2 (0.6)

4.1 (0.9)

4.8 (1.0)

5.4 (1.2)

5.4 (1.2)

  

Stage 2 HT

3.7 (0.8)

6.0 (1.1)

6.4 (1.2)

—

6.4 (1.2)

 

Women

Normal

0.1 (0.08)

1.3 (0.4)

2.6 (0.7)

3.7 (0.9)

3.7 (0.9)

  

PreHT

0.4 (0.17)

1.6 (0.3)

3.6 (0.7)

4.7 (0.8)

4.7 (0.8)

  

Stage 1 HT

1.3 (0.3)

2.9 (0.6)

5.3 (0.9)

6.2 (1.1)

6.2 (1.1)

  

Stage 2 HT

2.6 (0.6)

5.5 (0.9)

6.9 (1.0)

8.9 (1.4)

8.9 (1.4)

  1. Abbreviations: BP, blood pressure; DBP, diastolic BP; HT, hypertension; JNC 7, Seventh Report of the Joint National Committee on the Prevention, Detection, Evaluation, and Treatment of High Blood Pressure; LTR, lifetime risk; SBP, systolic BP.
  2. a BP groups were defined using SBP and DBP, and followed criteria from the JNC 7 classification:12 normal, SBP<120 mm Hg and DBP<80 mm Hg; preHT, SBP 120–139 mm Hg and/or DBP 80–89 mm Hg; stage 1 HT, SBP 140–159 mm Hg and/or DBP 90–99 mm Hg; and stage 2 HT, SBP⩾160 mm Hg and/or DBP⩾100 mm Hg.
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