Table 3 Step 4: Diagnostics

From: Precision medicine for suicidality: from universality to subtypes and personalization

A. SI state

Predictors

Cohort

Participants visits with high SI/participants visits total

ROC AUC/P-value

Suicidality severity (HAMD SI score) correlation R/P-value

T-test P-value

Universal

 Best Biomarkers

     

SLC4A4

All

52/544

0.64/3.83E−04

0.13/1.54E−03

1.50E−03

CLN5

All

52/544

0.65/1.86E−04

−0.11/6.13E−03

3.90E−04

BioM 148 Panel (Bonferroni List)

All

52/544

0.61/6.18E−03

0.069/5.33E−02

1.77E−02

BioM 12 Panel (Top Dozen List)

All

52/544

0.61/3.66E−03

0.12/3.02E−03

3.08E−03

BioM 2 Panel (SLC4A4 and CLN5)

All

52/544

0.66/4.92E−05

0.14/7.82E−04

1.90E−04

 Phenes

     

Mood

All

52/544

0.77/5.93E−11

−0.38/3.17E−20

1.95E−10

Anxiety

All

52/544

0.77/3.43E−11

0.31/8.60E−14

2.03E–12

Mood and Anxiety (SASS)

All

52/544

0.81/5.55E−14

0.40/3.66E−22

3.57E−14

CFI-S

All

52/523

0.86/9.98E−18

0.43/1.03E−24

5.46E−16

Mood and Anxiety and CFI-S

All

52/523

0.89/2.59E−20

0.49/1.60E−33

1.08E−18

 Phenes and Biomarkers

     

Mood and Anxiety and CFI-S and BioM 148

All

52/523

0.89/1.36E−20

0.49/2.84E−33

2.88E−18

Mood and Anxiety, and CFI-S and BioM 12 (UP-Suicide)

All

52/523

0.90/3.87E−21

0.50/5.91-35

3.42E−19

Mood and Anxiety, and CFI-S and BioM2

All

52/523

0.89/4.56E−21

0.50/4.07E−34

2.83E−18

Male Bipolar

 Best Biomarkers

     

SPTBN1

M-BP

12/130

0.72/6.62E−03

0.21/8.54E−03

9.05E−03

C7orf73

M-BP

12/130

0.75/2.38E−03

−0.17/2.76E−02

1.08E−04

BioM 54 Panel (Bonferroni List)

M-BP

12/130

0.49/5.29E−01

0/4.90E−01

7.12E−01

BioM 12 Panel (Top Dozen List)

M-BP

12/130

0.57/2.08E−01

0.08/1.78E−01

8.79E−02

BioM 2(SPTBN1 and C7orf73)

M-BP

12/130

0.80/3.54E−04

0.23/4.77E−03

6.62E−05

 Phenes

     

Mood

M-BP

12/130

0.8/3.65E−04

−0.47/6.83E−09

1.65E−03

Anxiety

M-BP

12/130

0.86/2.19E−05

0.41/7.09E−07

1.91E−05

Mood and Anxiety (SASS)

M-BP

12/130

0.86/1.66E−05

0.5/7.15E−10

5.66E−05

CFI-S

M-BP

12/128

0.92/1.10E−06

0.5/6.11E−10

1.31E−06

Mood and Anxiety, and CFI-S

M-BP

12/128

0.94/2.82E−07

0.61/1.24E−14

3.01E−06

 Phenes and Biomarkers

     

Mood and Anxiety, and CFI-S and BioM 54

M-BP

12/128

0.93/5.30E−07

0.61/1.78E−14

5.54E−06

Mood and Anxiety, and CFI-S and BioM 12

M-BP

12/128

0.95/1.62E−07

0.62/1.92E−15

8.31E−07

Mood and Anxiety, and CFI-S and BioM 2

M-BP

12/128

0.97/5.14E−08

0.64/2.29E−16

2.59E−07

B. Future hospitalizations for suicidality in the first year following assessment

Predictors

Cohort

Participants visits with future hospitalizations for suicidality within the first year/particpants visits total

ROC AUC/P-value

Frequency of future hospitalizations for suicidality within the first year correlation R/P-value

T-test P-value

Cox regression hazard ratio /P-value

Universal

 Best Biomarkers

      

PSME4

All

38/471

0.59/2.62E−02

0.08/4.12E−02

6.20E−02

1.23/ 1.56E−01

AK2

All

38/471

0.60/2.31E−02

−0.06/9.70E−02

9.39E−03

1.35/ 7.22E−02

BioM 148 Panel (Bonferroni List)

All

38/471

0.52/3.37E−01

−0.02/6.67E−01

4.18E−01

1.09/8.27E−01

BioM 12 Panel (Top Dozen List)

All

38/471

0.58/4.20E−02

0.05/1.47E−01

5.02E−02

1.88/1.41E−01

BioM 2 Panel (PSME4 and AK2)

All

38/471

0.65/1.10E−03

0.10/1.29E−02

1.35E−03

1.68/0.018

 Phenes

      

Mood

All

38/471

0.65/1.00E−03

−0.16/3.63E−04

1.03E−03

1.69/1.47E−03

Anxiety

All

38/471

0.69/3.70E−05

0.16/3.43E−04

2.30E−04

1.82/2.62E−04

Mood and Anxiety (SASS)

All

38/471

0.71/9.78E−06

0.18/4.89E−05

7.73E−05

1.45/ 8.11E−05

CFI-S

All

38/470

0.75/1.79E−07

0.2/5.11E−06

1.40E−06

2.02/7.11E−07

Mood and Anxiety and CFI-S

All

38/470

0.76/6.34E−08

0.22/4.18E−07

2.22E−06

1.40/1.13E−07

HAMD SI

All

35/458*

0.81/5.27E−10

0.40/1.57E−19

2.64E−06

2.10/1.11E−15

Mood and Anxiety, and CFI-S and HAMD SI

All

35/458*

0.82/9.96E−11

0.35/4.11E−15

4.34E−08

1.36/1.83E−13

 Phenes and Biomarkers

      

Mood and, Anxiety and CFI-S and BioM 148

All

38/470

0.76/6.65E−08

0.21/1.29E−06

2.29E−06

1.37/2.01E−07

Mood and Anxiety, and CFI-S and BioM 12 (UP-Suicide)

All

38/470

0.77/2.87E−08

0.23/2.81E−07

9.11E−07

1.40/5.31E−08

Mood and Anxiety, and CFI-S and BioM 2

All

38/470

0.76/3.87E−08

0.24/1.17E−07

1.02E−06

1.39/3.98E−08

Mood and Anxiety, and CFI-S and HAMD SI, and BioM 2

All

35/458*

0.82/9.38E−11

0.35/3.20E−15

3.39E−08

1.35/1.83E−13

Male bipolars

 Best biomarkers

      

PTEN

M-BP

4/120

0.9/3.27E−03

0.22/6.76E−03

3.12E−02

1.73/2.73E−02

RNF6

M-BP

4/120

0.82/1.58E−02

−0.14/5.89E−02

9.14E−03

6.24/7.19E−02

BioM 54 Panel (Bonferroni List)

M-BP

4/120

0.75/4.23E−02

0.11/1.23E−01

4.71E−02

4.58/2.52E−01

BioM 12 Panel (Top Dozen List)

M-BP

4/120

0.56/3.41E−01

0.05/2.85E−01

3.08E−01

2.57/5.73E−01

BioM 2 (PTEN and RNF6)

M-BP

4/120

0.94/1.50E−03

0.23/5.17E−03

3.06E−03

2.68/1.19E−02

 Phenes

      

Mood

M-BP

4/120

0.69/1.04E−01

−0.14/6.08E−02

1.75E−01

2.10/1.32E−01

Anxiety

M-BP

4/120

0.70/9.29E−02

0.12/9.74E−02

1.12E−01

1.87/2.09E−02

Mood and Anxiety (SASS)

M-BP

4/120

0.72/7.19E−02

0.15/5.27E−02

1.34E−01

1.52/1.18E−01

CFI-S

MBP

4/120

0.80/2.10E−02

0.15/5.22E−02

3.46E−03

1.95/1.21E−01

Mood and Anxiety, and CFI-S

M-BP

4/120

0.78/2.77E−02

0.18/2.36E−02

6.78E−02

1.41/5.54E−02

 Phenes and biomarkers

      

Mood and Anxiety, and CFI-S and BioM 54

M-BP

4/120

0.81/1.64E−02

0.2/1.61E−02

5.13E−02

1.45/4.04E−02

Mood and Anxiety, and CFI-S and BioM 12

M-BP

4/120

0.79/2.59E−02

0.19/1.88E−02

7.92E−02

1.44/4.72E−02

Mood and Anxiety, and CFI-S and BioM 2

M-BP

4/120

0.86/7.02E−03

0.25/3.48E−03

2.22E−02

1.55/1.18E−2

  1. Biomarkers, phenes and combined predictions. Top increased and decreased individual predictive biomarkers. Underlined are individual biomarkers from the Top Dozen list, the others are from the Bonferroni list. For Universal, the panel of Top Dozen biomarkers is called BioM 12, and the panel of Bonferroni biomarkers is called BioM148, reflecting the number of markers in the panel. For Male Bipolar, the panel of Top Dozen biomarkers is called BioM 12, and the panel of Bonferroni biomarkers is called BioM54, reflecting the number of markers in the panel. Bold, Bonferroni significant in the diagnostic testing. Italic, a priori primary endpoint (UP-Suicide).
  2. Abbreviations: AUC, area under the curve; BP, bipolar; CFI-S, Convergent Functional Information for Suicidality; ROC, receiver operating characteristic; SASS, Simplified Affective State Scale; SI, suicidal ideation.
  3. Bold P-value of AUC survives correction for multiple testing for predictions. ROC AUC is our a priori primary predictive tool. HAMD SI is the suicide rating question from the Hamilton Rating Scale for Depression.*Smaller cohort, as not everybody had HAMD SI information.
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