Extended Data Figure 8: Antarctic contribution to GMSL.
From: The multi-millennial Antarctic commitment to future sea-level rise
a, Predicted sea-level contribution from the AIS for ‘high’ and ‘low’ simulations (coloured lines) under each of the four RCP scenarios as well as one that includes 2 × amplification of Antarctic temperatures by 2300 ce (darker shading), based on coeval climatic and oceanic perturbations. The forced response (grey shading) represents 20% to 42% of the committed response by 5000 ce. Lighter shading between coloured lines shows rates of sea-level-equivalent ice loss for each scenario. b, Long-term sea-level commitment as a function of atmospheric warming (blue shading with squares). Intermediate response curves for the ‘low’ simulations are shown in dotted lines. Red shading with triangles shows relationship between ice-shelf area and atmospheric warming for the near-equilibrium response and for intermediate stages (dotted lines). All curves in b are based on data from the four RCP scenario simulations, as well as one that includes 2 × amplification of Antarctic temperatures by 2300 ce, and two additional experiments whose maximum air temperature forcings are 1.5 °C and 3.35 °C. Pink shading defines the temperature range within which an ice-shelf extent less than 50% of present is simulated.
