Extended Data Figure 1: A generalized linear model to explain the severity of coral bleaching. | Nature

Extended Data Figure 1: A generalized linear model to explain the severity of coral bleaching.

From: Global warming and recurrent mass bleaching of corals

Extended Data Figure 1

Curves show the estimated relationships between probability of severe bleaching (>30%) on individual reefs of the Great Barrier Reef in 2016 and three explanatory variables (DHWs, chlorophyll a, and reef zoning, see Extended Data Table 1). The DHW-only model is shown in black. For the DHW plus chlorophyll a model, the blue threshold shows the estimated relationship between probability of severe bleaching and DHW for the 25th percentile of chlorophyll a, and the brown threshold shows the same for the 75th percentile of chlorophyll a. For the DHW plus reef zoning model, the red threshold shows the relationship for fished reefs, and the green for unfished reefs. Water-quality metrics and level of reef protection make little, if any, difference.

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