Novartis is now an obvious bidder for ThromboGenics, which is currently valued at about €1.3 ($1.6) billion. A combination of Alcon's third-quarter sales decline and the high price Novartis paid for the company—around $51 billion in successive tranches—has put pressure on the Swiss pharmaceutical firm to ensure its massive investment is a success. “For Alcon, it's a no-brainer,” one source, who wished to remain anonymous, says. “They have more to lose by not having the US rights.”
The more bullish analyst forecasts on Jetrea's potential put it in or around blockbuster territory. Jefferies, of New York, has forecast $875 million in sales, and KBC Securities, of Brussels, has forecast over €750 ($957) million in VMA alone, a condition that affects around 250,000 people. But it also has potential in additional eye indications, such as retinal venous occlusion, age-related macular degeneration (as an adjuvant therapy) and in a large fraction of diabetic macular edema (DME) patients. “Fifty percent of those people have VMA. Now you're talking about millions of people,” says KBC analyst Jan De Kerpel. The existing label allows its use in this population, but he says the company would probably obtain additional clinical evidence to support any marketing efforts here.
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