Table 1 Best five models explaining variation in survival of tawny owl colour morphs.

From: Climate change drives microevolution in a wild bird

Model†

QAICc

QAICc weight

Parameters

Likelihood

(1) Φ(temp+col*snow)p(t)

1,771.51

0.454

32

1.00

(2) Φ(col*temp+col*snow)p(t)

1,772.52

0.274

33

0.60

(3) Φ(vole+temp+col*snow)p(t)

1,773.64

0.156

33

0.35

(4) Φ(col*vole+temp+col*snow)p(t)

1,774.34

0.110

34

0.24

(5) Φ(col+t)p(t)

1,780.18

0.006

52

0.01

  1. Models are corrected for over-dispersion (ĉ=1.19).Abbreviations: col, plumage colour; snow, snow depth (cm); temp, temperature (°C); t, time dependence; vole, vole abundance index and interaction '*' between these. †The symbol Φ and p denote apparent survival and capture probability, respectively, with in subscript the covariates considered to affect each parameter. The interaction term is a shorthand notation for a model that also includes the effects separately (that is, 'col*snow' stand for 'col+snow+col*snow').
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