Figure 1: Challenge schematic.

(a) This analysis was performed in two phases. In the Competitive phase, an open competition was performed to formally evaluate and identify the best models in the world to address this research question. In all, 73 teams representing 242 registered participants joined the challenge. Organizers evaluated model performance for test set predictions submitted by 17 teams. The 8 best-performing teams were invited to join the collaborative phase. In this phase, a collectively designed experiment was developed, in which each team independently performed analyses and challenge organizers performed a combined analysis. (b) Two data sets were used in the analysis: the Discovery cohort and the CORRONA CERTAIN study. Participants were provided with 2.5M imputed SNP genotypes+5 covariates from two cohorts and with the response trait for 2,031 individuals in the Discovery cohort (‘Training Set’). At the completion of the 16-week training period, participants were required to submit a final submission containing predictions of response traits in a completely independent data set, the CORRONA CERTAIN study (‘Validation Test Set’).