Figure 2: Modelled extirpation probabilities on uninhabited islands with invasive rats and cats.
Background colour represents the predicted persistence (grey) or extirpation (white) of native island populations (Supplementary Table 5). Line colours correspond to the invasive mammal type(s) used to generate each set of model predictions: no invasive mammals (black), cats only (orange), rats only (yellow) or cats and rats (red). (a) Modelled extirpation probabilities for non-volant mammals and volant birds across the range of island areas for uninhabited islands in the data set, with precipitation held at the median value for uninhabited islands lacking invasive mammals or containing only rats and/or cats (907 mm). (b) Modelled extirpation probabilities for non-volant mammals and non-volant birds across the range of precipitation values for uninhabited islands in the data set, with island area held at the median for uninhabited islands lacking invasive mammals or containing only rats and/or cats (0.6 km2). Rug plots on x axes correspond to all area (a) or precipitation (b) values for island-species records on these islands. Standard errors for the predictions were calculated from K-fold cross-validation (not shown because are too small to appear in graphs; minimum s.e.=0.0002, maximum s.e.=0.0158).
