Figure 3: Modelled extirpation probabilities on inhabited islands with invasive mammals.
Background colour represents the predicted persistence (grey) or extirpation (white) of native island populations (Supplementary Table 5). Line colours correspond to the invasive mammal type(s) used to generate each set of model predictions for inhabited islands: invasive mammals absent (black); humans and rats (yellow); humans, rats and pigs (light turquoise); humans, rats and cats (orange); humans, rats, cats and pigs (dark turquoise); humans, rats, cats and mustelids/mongooses (blue); humans and all invasive mammal types (magenta). (a) Modelled extirpation probabilities for non-volant mammals and volant birds across the complete range of island areas in the data set, with precipitation held at the median value for inhabited islands (1,762 mm). (b) Modelled extirpation probabilities across the complete range of island precipitation values for non-volant mammals, non-volant birds, reptiles and amphibians, with area held at the median value for inhabited islands (134 km2). Rug plots on x axes correspond to the area (a) or precipitation (b) values for all island-species records on inhabited islands. Standard errors were calculated from K-fold cross-validation (not shown because are too small to appear in graphs; minimum s.e.=0.0002, maximum s.e.=0.0202).
