Table 3 Models of tourist visitation and elephant densities at Addo Elephant National Park.

From: Estimating economic losses to tourism in Africa from the illegal killing of elephants

 

Mean

s.d.

2.5%

97.5%

Number effective samples

R-hat

1965–2010

 Intercept

10.91

7.09

−2.94

24.91

1,490

1

 Area

0.47

0.1

0.27

0.66

2,104

1

 Country GDP

−0.46

0.9

−2.22

1.3

1,494

1

 Elephant density

0.67

0.21

0.26

1.08

1,355

1

 σ (tourists)

0.38

0.04

0.31

0.47

2,456

1

1965–1995

 Intercept

13.12

6.38

0.72

25.2

1,661

1

 Area

0.22

0.09

0.05

0.4

1,978

1

 Country GDP

−0.59

0.81

−2.13

0.99

1,652

1

 Elephant density

0.55

0.18

0.19

0.9

1,549

1

 σ (tourists)

0.3

0.04

0.23

0.39

1,864

1

1996–2010

 Intercept

9.72

0.58

8.56

10.87

2,011

1

 Elephant density

0.66

0.19

0.27

1.05

1,978

1

 σ (tourists)

0.15

0.04

0.09

0.26

1,560

1

  1. Bayesian regression model results for a model that predicts annual tourist visits (log-transformed) at Addo Elephant National Park in South Africa. The mean, s.d., 2.5% quantile and 97.5% quantile of posterior coefficient estimates are presented, as well as the number of effective samples and the R-hat measure of parameter convergence.
Back to article page