Figure 5: Projections of mortality according to scenarios of adaptation to warm and/or cold apparent temperatures.
From: Long-term projections and acclimatization scenarios of temperature-related mortality in Europe
Annual mean values of mortality (million cases) for rolling 31-year periods were summed at the continental level for the 54 areas. (a, c, e) Mortality projections for a scenario with only decreased susceptibility to warm temperatures (g). For b, d, f, increased susceptibility to cold temperatures is also assumed (h). Solid lines in the projections correspond to a scenario with no adaptation (that is, R=0), and dashed curves indicate that the warm and/or cold transfer functions are shifted by R·Δμ degrees in the temperature space (0<R≤1), where Δμ represents the time-varying increase in annual mean apparent temperatures relative to 1980–2010. Horizontal black lines depict the annual mean mortality for this reference period. Blue, red and green colours correspond to projections of mortality computed for days within the cold tail, the warm tail and the whole range of temperatures, respectively. Note that the threshold dividing the range of temperatures into the warm and cold tails was here shifted by R·Δμ/2 and R·Δμ degrees in g and h, respectively. Coefficient R is here shown for values 0.0 (darker line), 0.1, 0.2,..., 0.9, 1.0 (lighter curve).
