Table 2 Implications of models’ evaluation.

From: Abrupt cooling over the North Atlantic in modern climate models

Subset of models

Averaged skill score

Unweighted occurrence

Weighted occurrence

Occurrence (S>0.8)

Occurrence (S>0.9)

Non-abrupt

0.53±0.36

77.5% (31/40)

70.1%

66.7% (12/18)

54.5% (6/11)

SPG convection collapse

0.90±0.08

17.5% (7/40)

26.6%

33.3% (6/18)

45.5% (5/11)

AMOC disruption

0.39±0.30

5.0% (2/40)

3.3%

0% (0/18)

0% (0/11)

  1. Summary of the averaged skill scores featured by the different sub-ensembles. The probability of occurrence of the event associated with each subset of models is shown, respectively, if no weighting criterion is applied to the models, if a weighting criterion is applied to the models, if only models satisfying the condition S>0.8 are considered, if only models satisfying the condition S>0.9 are considered.
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