Figure 4: Results for 2001–2014 retrospective forecasts.
From: Ensemble forecast of human West Nile virus cases and mosquito infection rates

Shown are the fraction of forecasts accurate as a function of lead week for the metrics human WNV cases (blue), peak timing (week of peak mosquito infection rates, orange), peak infection rate (yellow) and total infectious mosquitoes (purple). A forecast was deemed accurate if: (1) peak timing was within ±1 week of the observed peak of infectious mosquitoes; (2) peak infection rate was within ±25% of the observed peak infection rate; (3) total infectious mosquitoes were within ±25% of the observed; and (4) human WNV cases were within ±25% or ±1 case of the total number of reported cases, whichever was larger. Note that for all metrics lead week is shown with respect to the week of peak mosquito infection.