Figure 4: Effects of weather and density at breeding and population-specific wintering grounds on population growth rate (λ).

(a) Direct effects (mean±95% credible interval) of weather and density at the breeding (orange) and population-specific wintering grounds (blue) on vital rates. (b) Cumulative indirect effects of breeding and winter covariates on population growth rate via the vital rates. The total effect of a given covariate X (for example, winter temperature) on population growth rate was calculated from standardized regression coefficients estimated using path analysis by calculating the indirect effects of covariate X on growth rate via each vital rate and then summing indirect effects across all vital rates. The indirect effect of covariate X on growth rate through a given vital rate V equals the product of the direct effect of vital rate V on growth rate and the direct effect of covariate X on vital rate V.