Figure 1: Conceptual framework for LUCI-LCA.
From: Life cycle assessment needs predictive spatial modelling for biodiversity and ecosystem services
Two key innovations to standard LCA are shown in orange; the elements of the life cycle that are modified by these innovations are highlighted in yellow. First, land-change modelling (LCM) based on logistic regression with climatic and soil suitability is used to forecast plausible future agricultural expansion (including intensification), rather than attributing future footprint based on current status as done in standard attributional LCA. Second, land-use change (LUC) is translated to impacts using spatially explicit models for biodiversity (MSA) and ecosystem services (InVEST), rather than assuming linear relationships between impacts and crop production as in standard LCA. All changes to inventories and impacts occur within the agriculture stage of the life cycle, shown in expanded form (in the orange box) above the full standard LCA schematic in grey.
