Figure 3: Examples of recovery timeline forecasting.
From: Extended fisheries recovery timelines in a changing environment
(a,b) Two examples of non-stationary biomass time series to which the non-stationary Graham–Schaefer model was fit. The solid grey lines indicate the mean posterior carrying capacity K; solid green lines give the mean posterior BMSY (with 50 and 90% intervals as dotted green lines). Vertical black lines differentiate the observed period and 10 years after. The mean biomass trajectories beyond the observed period are given as solid black lines with 50% and 90% intervals as dashed black and grey lines, respectively. (c,d) The fitted and forecasted productivity trajectories that drive the biomass predictions (red lines indicate lines of zero net growth). The posterior predictive distribution for recovery after 10 years is then taken from the sample histograms in e,f, where the biomass forecasts are given in grey and the BMSY posterior estimates given in green.
