Figure 4: Consequences of non-stationary productivity for recovery of currently depleted stocks.
From: Extended fisheries recovery timelines in a changing environment
Shown are recovery probabilities over a 10-year timeline under no fishing (F=0; a) and under fishing at 90% of maximum sustainable yield (F=0.9FMSY; b). Black circles indicate probability point estimates; vertical lines display uncertainty, where the lower (upper) limit is assessed as the proportion of trajectories exceeding the 10% (90%) posterior BMSY quantile. For comparison, red circles give the predicted recovery probability for each stock based on the deterministic Graham–Schaefer theory where the intrinsic productivity is fixed at its mean historical value. In the deterministic case, a stock recovers with probability 1 or 0.
