Figure 1: Analysis of rainfall as a predictor of epidemiology suitable for SMC. | Nature Communications

Figure 1: Analysis of rainfall as a predictor of epidemiology suitable for SMC.

From: Estimating the potential public health impact of seasonal malaria chemoprevention in African children

Figure 1

(a) Receiver operating characteristic curve for binary indicator variables describing the percentage of the annual total rainfall occurring in 3 consecutive months. Dummy variables were created for 5% intervals between 0% and 100%. Observed values of cumulative rainfall in 3 months ranged from 33.8%–84.5%. The best indicator of SMC areas was rainfall greater than 60% in 3 months (sensitivity 95.0%, specificity of 73.5%). The black line indicates the reference line of no discrimination. (b) Maximum percentage of annual rainfall within 3 consecutive months compared with maximum percentage of malaria incidence within four consecutive months. The horizontal red line shows the cumulative incidence threshold within 4 months specified by definition B. The vertical red line shows discrimination of the data points by the best indicator based on rainfall (60% within 3 months).

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