Figure 3: Malaria cases and deaths potentially averted by SMC.

Malaria cases and malaria deaths potentially averted in all areas suitable for SMC (a,c), and in areas with incidence >0.2 cases per child per year (b,d), with varying assumptions about efficacy, monthly coverage and the fraction of the burden occurring during the SMC period. 75% was considered the best estimate of the fraction of the total annual malaria burden occurring during the SMC period in SMC areas; 60 and 90% are also shown. Solid lines show impact for 3 SMC courses, assumed to have 65% efficacy as detailed in the text. Dotted lines show impact for 4 SMC courses, assumed to have 80% efficacy. The malaria burden estimate used for these calculations was that using the WMR method: 33,677,976 malaria cases in all SMC areas with stable endemic P. falciparum, and 25,712,319 derived from the population mapped by rainfall in areas with estimate of malaria incidence >0.2/child/year. Deaths refer to the constant-case fatality rate of 4.5 per 1,000, applied to the incidence estimates.