Figure 4: Prevalence and incidence of malaria detected in SMC studies and the MAP prevalence-incidence relationship.

Data points show observed incidence against end of season prevalence from control or placebo groups in IPTc studies from Niakhar, Senegal³⁰; Hohoe, Ghana³¹; Kambila, Mali³²; Bobo-Dioulasso, Burkina Faso (Zongo I., personal communication); Kati, Mali²⁷ and Boussé, Burkina Faso²⁶. Data points show malaria incidence defined as fever plus parasitaemia of any density or with a local defined parasite density cutoff, and are shown against the left vertical axis. All studies included children under 5 years of age, with the exception of the Kambila IPTc study, which included children under 10 years of age. For the Kambila IPTc study (Mali) the prevalence estimate at the start of the transmission season (92/262, 35.1%) was used rather than that measured at the end of the transmission season, as this was based on relatively small numbers (8/54, 15%). The curve shows the fitted relationship between all age incidence per annum and prevalence in children 2–10 years of age, 13 and is shown against the right vertical axis. Dashed lines show the upper and lower limit of the incidence-prevalence relationship defined by the IPTc data points.