Figure 3: Vegetation phenology models informed by temperature and sea ice metrics at local and broad scales.

Each panel depicts the best-fit phenology model for a temporal or spatial scale of abiotic predictor(s). Predicted values of the timing of 50% plant species emergence are plotted against observed values from the study site. Model fits are organized in rows by local temperature (top row—two temporal scales), sea ice cover (centre row—two spatial scales) and Arctic-wide temperature (bottom row—two temporal scales). The dashed line in each panel depicts the 1:1 relationship between predicted and observed values. All panels used models parameterized with data from 2002 to 2011 (black circles) except d where no 2011 data were yet available. Red circles represent data from 1993 not used in the model parameterization. Abiotic predictors identified for each best-fit model scale are as follows: (a) May mean monthly temperature from Kangerlussuaq, Greenland; (b) Kangerlussuaq, Greenland Summer Warmth Index (SWI) (that is, thawing degree months) in the (The parentheses usage in this legend is inconsistent when referring to each panel. Panel d should have parenthesis when it is referred to for the second time in this legend (as it is being defined here) but not in the first reference in this panel) current year of plant emergence; (c) January and June Arctic sea ice extent; (d) is the Davis Strait/Baffin Bay regional sea ice extent in June of the year of plant emergence; (e) Arctic-wide SWI of the year before plant emergence; (f) April Arctic-wide mean monthly temperature.