Figure 3: Incorporating modularity into connectivity predictions alters conclusions on metapopulation viability for cactus bugs.

(a) Estimates of metapopulation capacity on the basis of social network models that ignore the potential for modularity and include the potential for modularity (via latent space clustering parameters). The dashed line shows the theoretical prediction of metapopulation capacity using the Hanski and Ovaskainen³⁴ approach. Error bars denote variation based on the inclusion of 95% credible intervals in movement predictions. (b) Proportional patch contributions to metapopulation capacity for models that ignore the potential for modularity and include the potential for modularity. Patch contributions to metapopulation capacity are based on the squared leading eigenvectors of connectivity matrices³⁴. Dotted diagonal line indicates no differences in proportional contributions.