Figure 4: Weekly predictions of CDC ILI+ and GFT ILI+ peak timing for HHS regions.
From: Real-time influenza forecasts during the 2012–2013 season
Top: the fraction of all SIRS-EAKF forecasts each week (made using SIRS model without AH modulation of R0); the week 1–6 forecasts were run in near real time; the week 47–52 forecasts were run using data downloaded following week 1. Middle: plots of observed HHS CDC ILI+ as reported through week 12, 2013; using this metric, all HHS peak during week 52, except HHS Region 9, which peaked during week 4. Bottom: plots of observed HHS GFT ILI+ as reported through week 12, 2013; 9 of the 10 GFT ILI+ HHS regions peak later than their counterpart CDC ILI+ estimate. From week 40 (2012) through week 12 (2013), HHS GFT ILI+ was on average 1.61 times corresponding estimates of HHS CDC ILI+, and during weeks 1–5 HHS GFT ILI+ was on average 2.20 times HHS CDC ILI+.
