Figure 6: Projected depletion of mineable P.
From: Human-induced nitrogen–phosphorus imbalances alter natural and managed ecosystems across the globe
Expected depletion of mineable phosphorus to satisfy total crop phosphorus demand throughout the twenty-first century. Inset indicates the deficit of phosphorus under current (year 2000, grey bars) and projected future (year 2050, red bars) balances between cereal crop phosphorus-demand and supply (positive values) or a surplus of phosphorus in negative values. For the year 2040, at current rates of phosphorus application, phosphorus surpluses decrease and phosphorus deficits increase indicating the likely increase in the application of finite phosphorus reserves (with error bars representing the max–min range from the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment cereal yield storylines). It is likely that the mineable phosphorus pool (blue shaded area; not considering additional potential reserves, see Fig. 1) will be depleted by over 50% (horizontal red line) by mid-late twenty-first century.
