Table 1 PKPD and reinfection model parameters.
Parameters | Symbol | Prior distribution | Prior median (95% interval) | Posterior estimate and 95% credible interval, or fixed value | Units | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fitted parameters, full PKPD model | ||||||
Probability of reinfection as piperaquine concentration tends towards infinity | P min | Beta α=1, β=15 | 0.0045 (0.0018, 0.2184) | 0.0038 (0.0001–0.0210) | — | |
Piperaquine capillary concentration that gives half the maximum reduction in the probability of blood-stage infection | C 50 | Half-normal, mean=0, s.d.=30 (absolute values) | 20.2 (0.9, 67.2) | 22.1 (19.9–24.1) | ng ml−1 | |
Piperaquine power parameter | k | Half-normal, mean=0, s.d.=15 (absolute values) | 10.1 (0.5, 33.6) | 21.0 (9.5–40.7) | — | — |
Probability of reinfection as lumefantrine concentration tends towards infinity | P min | Beta α=1, β=15 | 0.0045 (0.0018, 0.2184) | 0.0224 (0.0006–0.1017) | — | |
Lumefantrine venous concentration at which gives half the maximum reduction in the probability of blood-stage infection | C 50 | Half-normal, mean=0, s.d.=500 (absolute values) | 337.3 (15.6, 1121.2) | 331.0 (229.2–543.4) | ng ml−1 | |
Lumefantrine power parameter | k | Half-normal, mean=0, s.d.=15 (absolute values) | 10.1 (0.5, 33.6) | 12.2 (2.6–34.3) | — | — |
Annual EIR—Nanoro, Burkina Faso | ε | Log-normal, mean=log* (130), s.d.=0.7 | 130 (33, 513) | 97.3 (66.2–145.6) | ibpppy | |
Annual EIR—Kilifi, Kenya | ε | Log-normal, mean=log(34), s.d.=0.7 | 34 (9, 135) | 19.6 (11.7–31.6) | ibpppy | |
Annual EIR—Manhiça, Mozambique | ε | Log-normal, mean=log(38), s.d.=0.7 | 38 (10, 150) | 24.9 (16–39.3) | ibpppy | |
Annual EIR—Mbarara, Uganda | ε | Log-normal, mean=log(14.5), s.d.=0.8 | 14.5 (3, 70) | 19.8 (11.5–34.3) | ibpppy | |
Annual EIR—Ndola, Zambia | ε | Log-normal, mean=log(6), s.d.=0.8 | 6 (1, 29) | 41.1 (24.7–64.7) | ibpppy | |
Annual EIR—Bobo-Dioulasso, Burkina Faso | ε | Log-normal, mean=log(117), s.d.=0.8 | 117 (24, 561) | 25.2 (17.1–36.5) | ibpppy | |
Fitted parameters: model of prophylaxis without PKPD (Weibull survival curve) | ||||||
Piperaquine scale parameter | λ | Half-normal, mean=0, s.d.=3,000 (absolute values) | 84 (3.9, 280.2) | 28.1 (23.6, 34.5) | Days | — |
Piperaquine slope parameter | w | Half-normal, mean=0, s.d.=15 (absolute values) | 10.1 (0.5, 33.6) | 4.4 (2.9, 7.6) | — | — |
Lumefantrine scale parameter | λ | Half-normal, mean=0, s.d.=3,000 (absolute values) | 84 (3.9, 280.2) | 10.6 (9.3, 13.1) | Days | — |
Lumefantrine slope parameter | w | Half-normal, mean=0, s.d.=15 (absolute values) | 10.1 (0.5, 33.6) | 11.3 (4.0, 32.2) | — | — |
Annual EIR—Nanoro, Burkina Faso | ε | Log-normal, mean=log*(130), s.d.=0.7 | 130 (33, 513) | 74.4 (48.7–111.5) | ibpppy | |
Annual EIR—Kilifi, Kenya | ε | Log-normal, mean=log(34), s.d.=0.7 | 34 (9, 135) | 17.9 (10.9–28.7) | ibpppy | |
Annual EIR—Manhiça, Mozambique | ε | Log-normal, mean=log(38), s.d.=0.7 | 38 (10, 150) | 21.9 (14.5–33.2) | ibpppy | |
Annual EIR—Mbarara, Uganda | ε | Log-normal, mean=log(14.5), s.d.=0.8 | 14.5 (3, 70) | 16.5 (9.6–27.6) | ibpppy | |
Annual EIR—Ndola, Zambia | ε | Log-normal, mean=log(6), s.d.=0.8 | 6 (1, 29) | 32.7 (20.6–51.9) | ibpppy | |
Annual EIR—Bobo-Dioulasso, Burkina Faso | ε | Log-normal, mean=log(117), s.d.=0.8 | 117 (24, 561) | 20 (13.6-28.9) | ibpppy | |
Fixed parameters | ||||||
Age-related biting parameter | ρ | Fixed | — | 0.85 | ||
Age-related biting parameter | a 0 | Fixed | — | 2920 | Days | |
Variance in exposure to mosquito bites | Fixed | — | 1.768 | — | ||
Infectiousness after AL treatment relative to an untreated infection | Fixed | — | 0.05094 | — | ||
Infectiousness after DHA–PQP treatment relative to an untreated infection | Fixed | — | 0.09434 | — | ||
Duration of treated infection | Fixed | — | 5 | Days | ||
Duration of untreated infection | Fixed | — | 195 patent infection followed by 84 subpatent infection | Days | ||
Pre-erythrocytic immunity | ||||||
Time during which immunity cannot be boosted after a previous boost | u b | Fixed | — | 4.44 | — | |
Decay parameter | d b | Fixed | — | 3650 | Days | |
Infection probability in non-immunes | b h | Fixed | — | 0.637 | — | |
Lowest infection probability at maximum immunity relative to non-immunes | b min | Fixed | — | 0.500 | — | |
Scale parameter | I B0 | Fixed | — | 57.89 | — | |
Shape parameter | q | Fixed | — | 2.11 | — | |
