Figure 4: Early warning signals of AMOC collapse in the transient hosing experiment. | Nature Communications

Figure 4: Early warning signals of AMOC collapse in the transient hosing experiment.

From: Early warning signals of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation collapse in a fully coupled climate model

Figure 4

Time series shown is from 26.25°N and ~1,000 m depth. (a) Annual time series up to red vertical line is detrended by a Kernal smoothing function (shown by smooth red line). The early warning signal analysis is carried out on (b) the residuals from this. Indicators of (c) AR(1) coefficient estimation and (d) variance are calculated as described in main text and Methods and plotted at the end of the window used to estimate them. Examples in (c) and (d) are shown for window lengths of 400, 300, 250, 200 and 150 years while using a detrending bandwidth of 100 years. Sensitivity analysis to determine how robust the indicators are to varying window length and detrending bandwidth is shown as contour plots of tendency, measured by Kendall’s τ (see Methods), in the window length-bandwidth plane for (e) AR(1) coefficient estimation and (f) variance.

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