Figure 8: Recent AMOC and projected change.
From: Bidecadal North Atlantic ocean circulation variability controlled by timing of volcanic eruptions
(a) Simulated AMOC anomalies at 48°N in historical IPSL-CM5A-LR simulations (black), and in the sensitivity tests performed without taking into account the Pinatubo eruption (green). Results of the corresponding conceptual model (SI) are shown in dotted lines. (b) Estimates of AMOC at 45°N (1979–1988) based on hydrographic data13 (pink curve) and ensemble mean of the AMOC maximum at 45°N from 12 ocean reanalyses12 (red). This ensemble mean has been rescaled by a factor √12, to correct for the loss of variance caused by averaging different ocean models with different data assimilation. The five-member ensemble average of IPSL-CM5A-LR simulations nudged towards observed SST anomalies14 is shown in blue. The dashed blue curve is the associated conceptual model including NAO variation (Methods). A 5-year running mean has been applied to all time series.
