Figure 5: The support and contribution of swIAV diffusion predictors among nine countries.

Twelve predictors were considered: geographical distance (km), volume of live swine trade, 1996–2012 (USD), swine population size for the years 1969–2010, the total number of imports of live swine during 1969–2010, the total number of swine exports during 1969–2010, the percent change in swine population (pop) size from 1969–2010 and the number of sequences available from a given country for our analysis. ‘O’ refers to the swine population of origin, and ‘d’ refers to the swine population of destination. Support for each predictor is represented by an inclusion probability that is estimated as the posterior expectation for the indicator variable associated with each predictor (E[δ]). The contribution of each predictor is represented by the mean and credible intervals of the GLM coefficients (β) on a log scale conditional on the predictor being included in the model (β|δ=1). See Supplementary Fig. 8 for MP and NS results.