Figure 2: Graduate Cylindrical Shell model of the CME and interplanetary shock kinematics.
From: Strong coronal channelling and interplanetary evolution of a solar storm up to Earth and Mars
(a) Fit of the Graduated Cylindrical Shell (GCS) model (blue grid) overlaid on multipoint coronagraph observations, from left to right: STEREO-B, SOHO, STEREO-A. Shown are results for 7 January 2014 at 18:25 UT ±1 min, when the GCS apex was at 4.2 R⊙. (b) Distance (top) and speed (bottom) of the CME shock in the ecliptic are shown as a function of time. Blue (orange) solid lines are the kinematics towards Earth (Mars) calculated with the ElEvo model, based on a DBM with γ=0.165 × 10−7 km−1 and w=400 km s−1. Blue and orange dashed lines indicate errors from a variation of γ from 0.16 to 0.17 × 10−7 km−1, which results from the uncertainty in tMars of ±1 h. Black triangles are the results of triangulation, with speeds and their errors deduced from a derivation of a spline fit on the distance measurements. The observed arrival times and speeds at Earth are indicated by black diamonds, and the arrival window at Mars with a black horizontal line.
